Aymeric “Jordy” Goetschy Julien “Michael Jackson” Grimaldi
MUSIC ONLINE: AN INDUSTRIAL CRISIS? Although legal peer-to-peer networks may appear to be a solution, some artists are distributing their own creations online, independently from the big music industry. I - Piracy of downloaders versus piracy of music industry 1 – How online piracy is damaging music, how music industry is trying to fight back. Articles: What the RIAA is Doing About Piracy Disparate Cast Lobbies Court To Restrict File Sharing Upbeat : Is the threat of online piracy receding ? 2 – The music industry's abuses Articles: Who are the pirates? The politics of piracy, poverty, and greed in a globalized music market The music industry doesn't need more government protection Recording Industry in Australia works to conceal record-breaking sales II Projections for the future music distribution 1- Ways the music industry is adapting Articles : The Changing Deal Facing the digital music 2 - From the artist right to the listener Articles: Music for robots Conclusion I - Piracy of downloaders versus piracy of music industry
Free, illegal downloads are placing the music industry at risk: they are depriving music labels of billions in revenue, and making hundreds of people redundant. Creations by artists cannot be commercialized, because they are not profitable enough. But music prices are too expensive, and the industry's current business model makes the entire process of production too costly for both artists and consumers. 1 – How online piracy is damaging music, how music industry is trying to fight back. The music industry is enduring a structural crisis. Due to the success of online piracy, billions in revenue are escaping it, and the legal protection is inadequate. Change has to occur.
Madonna, as controversial as ever, flooded the Internet with fake MP3s of her new single with the message for downloaders 'What the **** do you think you are doing?' Copyright: Getty Images available from Education Image Gallery Britney Spears And Madonna Share A Kiss.
What the RIAA is Doing About Piracy
© 2003 RIAA http://www.riaa.com/issues/piracy/riaa.asp
Site analysis: This is the official site of the Recording Industry American Association (RIAA). RIAA is the trade group which represents the
Site identification : English summary : The Recording Industry American Association's (RIAA) job is to prevent the music industry from being damaged by piracy, which is very costly for the American majors. RIAA has the ability to help the authorities in stopping illegal operations for both digital and physical products. Concerning online piracy, RIAA attempts to get the identity of the site operator, serves notice on him that the illegal site must be removed, and urges the individual to pay a fee. RIAA sues hundreds of sites which disrespect copyright laws and is trying to educate citizens in order for them to come to prefer legal offers. RIAA also initiated the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry in 1999 to coordinate music industry actions worldwide. French summary : L'Association de l'Industrie du Disque Américaine (AIDA) tente de lutter contre le piratage réel et numérique, en aidant les autorités et les « hébergeurs » de site à stopper les opérations illégales, en intentant des procès contre les pirates en ligne, en faisant respecter les droits du copyright, en menant des campagnes d'information envers le public, et en tentant de coordonner les efforts en ce sens de l'industrie de la musique dans le monde entier. Lexicon : Litigation: litige Enforcement: discipline – to enforce: faire observer, mettre en vigueur (un règlement) Infringement : infraction d'un règlement, violation d'une loi Subpoena process : citation à comparaître ; assignation
Market Share of the Music Industry 2002. Source IFPI ; http://www.ifpi.org/site-content/press/20030909.html Disparate Cast
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NAPSTER's logo
English translation :
The Music Industry feels peer-to-peer networks might be more than a threat : a source of revenue, if music online is legally downloaded, as on iTunes or the new Napster. But still, music majors are losing money, and illegal, free softwares remain appealing to youth and students. For many consumers, Cds are too expensive. Moby says the music industry is due to disappear if it doesn't change, in spite of being a mere artist, he is able to post his production online. Music labels have to search for new ways to make profit from selling music, and get rid of their marketing clout.
French translation :
L'industrie du disque se réjouit de la réussite des logiciels légaux de distribution de musique sur Internet. Mais le prix des Cds et l'attrait des jeunes envers les sources de musique sur le net illégales mais gratuites restent de graves menaces envers les labels, s'ils ne savent pas diversifier leurs sources de revenus.
Lexicon : Impecunious : sans le sou, sans ressources To boast : se targuer, se vanter To glimpse : se donner un apperçu Bleak : morne Please click on the links to get global versions of this article: English: French:
Even if downloaders are widely considered as THE “pirates” who will ruin the music industry, record companies might also be seen as « pirates » as well.
2 – The music industry's abuses
The following articles act as a counterbalance to the “regular” music industry discourse without falling into the Manichean excesses of many of those who denounce the major companies' policy. The Music industry has been abusing artists and consumers for a long time: CD prices are too high, and artists' productions are often orientated by a marketing drive.
Who are the pirates? The politics of piracy, poverty, and greed in a globalized music market
By Jack Bishop
(Feb 2004)
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2822/is_1_27/ai_n6075277
Side identification : www.findarticles.com
Site analysis: A browser of “alternative journalism” articles
English summary :
Record companies pretend that downloaders are “pirates”. However, when one faces the truth, the real pirates are the music industrials. The Latin American market is a good illustration of their abuses. Acting as a kind of “lobby”, record companies have influenced government decisions in this sector in order to maintain prices on CDs at a high level ; actually too high for the majority of the population. Therefore, in order to satisfy its need for music, the lower class prefers to buy their goods cheaper on the black market. Consequently, the free downloading phenomenon is a result of the record industry's policy implemented throughout the last decades. In addition, music labels are quite hypocritical when it comes to defending their position in the downloading issue. Whereas, according to them, today they are defending the rights of the artists, in the past they preferred to apply a mercantile approach rather than being on the artists' side. Thus, although record companies have earned billions of dollars on the sales of CD-Rs and CD burners, they never shared a dime of it with the artists. Therefore, when they subsequently argue they are defending artists' interests, it transpires they are being somewhat hypocritical and demagogical.
French summary :
Alors que les maisons de disques – notamment les multinationales – se posent aujourd'hui en victimes du piratage en ligne, elles ont abusé en fait, depuis des années, de leur position dominante. Ainsi, en Amérique Latine – au Brésil ou au Mexique, par exemple – elles ont réussi à imposer un prix élevé sur les disques. Ce tarif excessif a encouragé la majeure partie de la population, aux revenus limités, à se tourner vers le piratage. En outre, l'industrie musicale a largement bénéficié – via des taxes sur les ventes de CD-R et de graveurs de CDs – d'importants subsides liés à la copie de musique, sans jamais en faire bénéficier leurs artistes.
Lexicon :
To rake over : ratisser
Price gouging : escroquerie des prix
The lion's share : la part du lion
Hardships : épreuves, souffrances
To dabble in : faire qqch en amateur, donner dans
To stamp out : enrayer, juguler
To parlay : faire fructifier, réemployer,
To soar : monter en flèche
To wane : décliner
Trickle-down theory : théorie économique selon laquelle la richesse à outrance finit par « percoler » jusqu'aux plus pauvres
Music industry doesn't need more government protection
By Michael Geist
(feb 2005)
http://www.michaelgeist.ca/resc/html_bkup/feb212005.html
Site identification : www.michaelgeist.ca
Site analysis: Personal site on the thoughts of Michael Geist, a law teacher at the
English summary :
Whereas the music industry claims to rest on the “supply and demand” market rule, it quite often benefits from State subsidies. The free downloading issue is a good example of this phenomenon. When one considers the situation of the Canadian market – which can be extended to frame the global situation – it seems that as record companies failed to anticipate the evolution of demand on the music market, they are subsequently demanding intervention from the State in order to regulate the use of peer to peer softwares ; mostly through repressive legislative intervention. In this context, these companies do not have the right attitude : they would do better to adapt their supply in order to meet the needs of consumers.
French summary :
Les entreprises du secteur musical n'ont pas su anticiper l'évolution de la demande des consommateurs. Ce manque de vision s'illustre notamment par le retard de l'industrie du disque à adapter son offre à la nouvelle consommation d'œuvres musicales. Les problèmes posés par le téléchargement gratuit de musique s'inscrit dans ce contexte : plutôt que modifier les règles du marché, les industriels font appel à l'Etat. Cet appel à une intervention étatique ne saurait pourtant résoudre le problème d'inadéquation actuelle entre offre et demande sur le marché du disque.
Lexicon :
narrow : étroit
a lens : une lentille
to stake out a position : adopter une position
to host : animer, acceuillir
to label : cataloguer
to address an issue : aborder un problème
detailed : minutieux
an upstart : un arriviste
ought to : devoir
to stay on the sidelines : ne pas prendre position, botter en touche
Recording Industry in
By Ken Fischer
(March 2004)
Source : http://arstechnica.com/news/posts/1080605291.html
Site identification : http://arstechnica.com
Site analysis :
This article is quite effective thanks to its incisive tone and the way it bases its reflection on many different issues. Several links enable the reader to have the opportunity to go deeper into a specific issue if he wants to without complicating the main text. The form of the site is therefore a success. The content shows the usual arguments of those who consider that record companies have lied too much in the past. However, if it is important for those lies to be recalled, the author does not suggest any kind of solution to the peer-to-peer issue.
English summary :
Most record companies lie. The Australian, English but global market also display the same mechanism : record companies manipulate the figures in order to provide a terrifying image of the situation of the music market nowadays. However, if one wants not to oversimplify this issue in a Manichean way, it appears that the downloaders do not belong to a alleged “evil empire”, whereas record companies are not the poor highly attacked and wronged “good guys” that they pretend to be. Actually, the music industry is far from being in real danger. Downloading by peer-to-peer software might even be a good thing for the music industry, because it offers consumers the opportunity to discover new artists and then subsequently buy their CDs. All in all, the RIAA's arguments seem to be quite flawed and partial.
French summary :
Dans le débat qui entoure le phénomène de téléchargement gratuit de musique, les maisons de disque tiennent un discours partial et parcellaire. Contrairement aux mensonges proférés, globalement, non seulement ce téléchargement ne met pas en danger l'industrie du disque, mais, a fortiori, ce marché ne connaît pas de véritable crise. Les chiffres catastrophiques annoncés ne reflètent en effet qu'une partie de la réalité.
Lexicon :
to shroud : envelopper dans un linceul, voiler
a doom : un destin funeste
a gloom : une obscurité
to bring up a question : aborder une question
palatable : acceptable
to hush : faire taire
canny : futé
II - Projections for music distribution in the future
The situation is clarifying things : the music industry, as far as its current organization is concerned, has to make drastic changes. In order to save its jobs and protect its profits, big music is trying out new ways of doing business, and adapting itself to the digital revolution.
On the other hand, artists are finding solutions to distribute their creations online, independently from music labels.
1
– How the music industry is adapting
The music labels are experiencing a digital revolution: they are not considering downloads as a threat anymore, but as a chance.
The Changing Deal
By Michael A. Aczon
(July 2000)
http://emusician.com/mag/emusic_changing_deal/
Site identification : www.emusician.com
Site analysis: Emusician.com is the official web site of Electronic Musician, the #1 Magazine in the
English summary:
Many changes are occurring in the music industry. First, artists are gaining an easier access to recording equipment and this alters record contract negotiations. Rights from the distribution of music online are being taken into account in new contracts, as is the collapse of packaging charges or the growing lack of relevance of the distribution by geographical territory nowadays. Web site domain names are growing very important. Far from new technology issues, some artists are requiring royalties on the sale of vinyls. To make sure artist's extreme behaviours won't hurt them, record companies now take out medical and life insurance policies. The development of sampling is leading record companies to ensure costs will be taken out by the artists. The possible eccentric attitudes of artists are now being forbidden by contracts. It is the very nature of the relationship between the artist and the record company that has changed: they are now seen as partners and labels see their profits decreasing.
French summary:
Les relations entre l'industrie de la musique et leurs artistes connaissent de nombreux changements dus aux évolutions technologiques et économiques. Ils induisent une redéfinition du contrat liant l'artiste à sa maison de disque, rendant l'artiste à la fois plus responsable et plus indépendant quant à sa production.
Lexicon :
Streaming audio: gros son en ligne
Outlandish: bizarre; barbare
Inception: commencement
To stick (it) out: tenir le coup
By CNN's Tony Campion (July 2004) http://edition.cnn.com/2004/TECH/07/20/digital.download/ Site identification : www.cnn.com Site analysis: Website of the information network CNN.
Facing the digital music
English summary :
Downloading is growing legal, becoming a new source of revenue for the music industry and artists. Bands are given the opportunity to develop and offer their own music online, without the help of major labels. But artists from smaller labels aren't distributed on iTunes. All artists should be able to distribute their own music themselves in order to benefit from the digital revolution.
French summary :
Le téléchargement en ligne se légalise et offre aux maisons de disque , mais aussi aux artistes, de nouvelles sources de revenues, si ces derniers sont capables de profiter de la révolution numérique en distribuant leur production en ligne.
Lexicon :
Downfall: chute
Lump: morceau
Leverage: force, influence
Screwed: ivre, saoul
Free music for your iPod
By Jeremy Horwitz
(Dec 2004)
http://www.ipodlounge.com/articles_more.php?id=5754_0_8_0_M
Site identification : www.ipodlounge.com
Site analysis: iPodlounge is an independent provider of information about Apple Computer Inc.'s iPod digital audio players, accessories, and related software. Based in
English summary:
There are two ways to download music online: illegally and legally. IpodLounge.com encourages you to get music online after ensuring the artist granted permission to share his or her music. The fact that file-sharing networks aren't free is not relevant enough to see an offer as legal. Some sites ruled by foreign laws are difficult to consider, but some offer the guarantee they are not breaking laws. Despite its high prices, iTunes is entirely safe and legal. Short radio-style programs are also available on the web. You can find forums on this issue on the iPodlounge site.
French summary:
La musique sur Internet est disponible de manière légale et illégale. Ipodlounge vous incite à ne télécharger de la musique que sur des sites légaux qui respectent les droits des artistes bien que les différentes législations internationales rendent difficile la perception de l'illégalité. Des programmes de radio sont disponibles sur le web, et vous trouverez des forums à ce sujet sur iPodlounge.com.
Lexicon:
To entice : attirer
Hourly : de toutes les heures, heure par heure
To be scrapped : mettre au rebut
Spearheader : fer de lance
2
- From the artist right to the listener
Internet has revolutionized the relationship between artists and the public. Nowadays, each artist has to have his own web site in order to market his production. However, from a more artistic point of view, these sites enable musicians to express themselves. Therefore, in theory, they might not need any kind of record company and just sell their music directly via the net. Nevertheless, even if it may be a way followed in the future, most of the time web sites are just another means to promote artists. One thing remains clear: if the 1980's saw the rise of the video clip – and consequently the growth oh the importance of the “image” of the artist - the start of the 21st century has to deal with websites and since few years with music blogs.
Site analysis : This site is a regular audio-blog with everything an audio-blog has to have. It is colourful and easy to use and there are plenty of pictures.
English summary :
This web site is an audio-blog, i.e. a blog which deals with music and provides mp3 files. Its aim is to offer work by some new artists to the public in order to awake them better known. Therefore, the blog's author emits a comment on each artist and posts one or two songs to be listened to. In addition, there are several fan polls, merchandising and links to other audio-blogs or sites linked with music which builds up a kind of community. This audio-blog represents a new trend in the music word : thanks to Internet, artists and fans can have a direct relationship without the intervention of record companies. Nevertheless, that in no way should lead to the death of the latter.
French summary :
Ce site ne peut pas être résumé. Il s'agit en effet d'un exemple de blog musical. Chaque article est donc relatif à un ou des artistes particuliers. Il illustre la vague actuelle des blogs musicaux qui permettent aux artistes et surtout aux fans anonymes de faire part de leur passion. Il symbolise l'intensification des liens directs entre artiste et fan. L'intérêt que l'on portera à ce blog correspond à l'adéquation des goûts musicaux de l'internaute par rapport à ceux du bloggeur.
Lexicon :
to drip : tomber goutte à goutte
to splatter (= to spatter) : éclabousser
a sleeve : une pochette
crushingly : de façon percutante
Site analysis: This site is the personal site of the artist Jude Christobal
The form of this site is very basic. Not very beautiful, not that interactive, this site is above all interesting in its ambition : its lack of beauty shows quite well that Jude does not have the same kind of money as the majors and other companies. According to this point of view, its form adds a kind of underground attitude which may be suited to this artist.
English summary :
Jude Christobal's career is interesting. His first album was a failure in the world, except in
French summary :
Tout comme un blog musical, résumer le site de Jude semble constituer une tâche impossible. En effet, celui-ci reste squelettique, mais c'est ce dénuement même qui en fait sa raison d'être : cet artiste américain licencié de sa maison de disque (Maverick Records) doit désormais auto-produire lui-même ses disques. Ainsi, il propose son dernier album directement via le net – il est introuvable dans le commerce - en échange de 12 dollars.
Lexicon :
a plank : un point d'un programme politique
crescent : croissant
NOFX
By NOFX
Site identification : http://www.nofxofficialwebsite.com/
Site analysis : This is the official NOFX website. This site – replete with pictures, drawings and photographs - is attractive. It is also very easy to reach the information you require. It seems that there is no real mistake in its form, but this might be its real mistake: as a punk band website, one could guess that it might differ from the usual marketing-driven websites. Except the unusual “Q & A” the rest of the site does not display any kind of originality.
English summary :
This is the official site of NOFX, an independent American punk band. Quite well-known on the indie music-scene, these “oldie” punkers have for about 15 years now shown a sense of responsibility in its image. They always refused to have their video-clips broadcasted on MTV and have even stopped giving interviews. However, their site is just a regular music band site, with the usual pages : discography, photos, lyrics, tour dates and even merchandising (quite amazing for an indie punk band !). Their site enables the band to express their artistic and political views (they are anti-Bush). They can interact directly with their fans as well (see the “Q & A” section).
French summary :
Ce site est le site officiel du groupe de punk américain NOFX. Ils n'ont donné que quelques interviews, les refusent aujourd'hui et interdisent à la chaîne de télévision MTV de diffuser leurs clips pour des raisons d' « éthique ». Il est donc intéressant de se pencher sur ce qu'un groupe de musique aussi indépendant a priori peut faire sur son site. Le résultat est légèrement décevant : en effet, leur site propose essentiellement les mêmes rubriques que les sites de groupes plus « commerciaux » (soit discographie, photos, paroles de chansons, …). Toutefois, il illustre également les possibilités qu'offre Internet pour rapprocher artistes et public.
Lexicon :
to ensure : garantir
video footage : une vidéo
to be unleashed : être déclenché, déchaîné
to hang up a picture : accrocher une image
to be concerned : être inquiet
__________________________________________________________Interview:
In order to conclude, we asked a music industry executive – working for an independent jazz and classical music label - to provide her impression about the situation. Here are her answers:
1: Is an independent label really free while it depends on a major?
If an independent label has a distribution deal with a major, there is a contract which spells out the relationship. If the independent is a strong label they can maintain their own artistic vision. The relationship between a label and a distributor has to be symbiotic to work well.
2: Are the consequences of free downloading the same for an independent label (compare to majors)?
I really don't know since we've only just started to allow downloading - and while it is a growing market, jazz and classical music are not where downloading has been prevalent - so far.
3: Do you think free downloading could be a way for not very famous artists to become more famous?
Possibly but only if they found a way to spread the word.
4: Is free downloading the real responsible for the crisis of the music industry ?
The "crisis" is a combination of many things including video games and DVD and the fact that in the 80s - with the beginning of the CD, the industry grew tremendously with people replacing their LPS with CDs - once they had done that, business dropped off, but the companies had grown and so it looked like a crisis.
5: Are people who download for free real criminals?
Depends on where they get the free downloads. I believe the artists should be paid for their music.
6: Is CD dead?
Not yet. Many ways still exist to make it attractive (detailed and precious booklet, artistic sleeves…)
7: According to you, what will the future of the music industry look like?
I am not at all a person who predicts the future.
8: What do you think of iTunes and the other software enabling to download music?
I have not used iTunes but a lot of people seem to love it.
___________________________________________
Appendice:
Full version of the article:
Upbeat
Is the threat of online piracy receding ?
http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2177244
PEOPLE in the music industry are feeling more optimistic than they have for years. Apple's digital music-download service, iTunes, has won customers in far greater numbers than once seemed possible. This week saw the launch of Napster 2.0, a paying version of the service shut down by big music and the courts in 2002 because its software allowed people to share songs for free. Legal, paid-for online services, music executives hope, together with lawsuits against file-sharers, could save the industry from internet piracy.
In April, in its first week, iTunes sold over 1m downloads. By the end of October it had sold about 14m. Now that Apple has made the service available to PC users—previously, only a Mac system would work—sales should soar still higher. Napster 2.0 has a library of 500,000 songs to choose from, 100,000 more than iTunes. Its strong brand makes it a formidable addition to the market.
But the fact that more people are willing to buy music online than seemed likely does not mean that the industry's problems are anywhere near over. In the next five years, says Informa Media Group, a media information publisher, digital sales of à la carte downloads and subscription services will grow 20-fold. But they will account for only $1.8 billion, or under 6%, of the global music market. Peer-to-peer file sharing will deprive the industry of $4.7 billion of revenues in 2008.
For impecunious teenagers and students, the fact that peer-to-peer sharing is free will always be compelling. Paying 99 cents for a song on iTunes, says one British teen, is unappealing because at that price she may as well buy the CD in a shop. Nor do the new services yet come close to matching the libraries of nearly all music ever recorded that the peer-to-peers boast.
As for the risk of a lawsuit from the Recording Industry Association of America, the selling point for new versions of peer-to-peer networks in recent months is that they can guard the identity of users. The most popular now is Earth Station 5, based in, of all places, the Jenin refugee camp on the
To glimpse the future, big music companies should look not at iTunes' encouraging numbers but at September's price cut by Universal Music Group, the biggest record company of all, which reduced CD prices for consumers by nearly a quarter. One reason for slumping music sales is that customers believe that CDs cost too much. Now, other firms will have to lower prices to compete with Universal. Discount stores such as Wal-Mart,
The success of iTunes has made clear to the music industry an uncomfortable truth: many people want to buy single tracks, not albums. Apple's data show that its customers bought 12 singles for every one album at iTunes. That compares with 0.02 singles per album in American stores, according to research by Sanford Bernstein. The best artists may tempt people to buy a whole album. But the industry can no longer rely on getting the price of an album as a reward for backing a band.
In the end, says Moby, an influential musician, the record industry will have to throw out its current business model. It will no longer be able to make huge profit margins on CDs that cost next to nothing to manufacture. To compensate for lower prices, he says, the industry needs to cut its marketing for artists by as much as four-fifths. Once the record companies have less marketing clout, and with internet distribution, says Moby, artists will be in a powerful position. “Why”, he asks, “is a record company any more qualified to send an MP3 to iTunes than I am?”
One reason why people have placed a lower value on music in recent years is that record companies put so much of their energy into creating acts that are hugely, but only briefly, successful. That could change in future as the industry alters its business model. If companies cannot make money by selling online, one option will be to try to get a piece of a band's other revenues. They would then have a strong incentive to nurture long-term quality.
Korda Marshall, managing director of East West Records, a division of Warner Music Group, developed “The Darkness”, a new British band soon to tour
For the consumer, buying music is likely to mean lower prices, more choice and, possibly, higher quality. But for the music industry as it exists today, despite the optimism caused by iTunes and the new Napster, the future remains uncertain and, compared to the past, bleak.
French version :
Une tonalité optimiste
La menace du piratage en ligne décroîtrait-elle ?
Le personnel de l'industrie de la musique se sent plus optimiste qu'il ne l'a été depuis des années. Le service de téléchargement de musique numérique d'Apple, iTunes, a gagné des consommateurs dans des proportions bien plus importantes qu'il ne l'a semblé un jour possible. Cette semaine a vu le lancement de Napster 2.0, une version payante du service fermé par les majors du secteur musical et les tribunaux en 2002 parce que son logiciel permettait aux gens de partager des chansons gratuitement. Les cadres de l'industrie du disque espèrent que les services en ligne payants, légaux, associés à des poursuites judiciaires contre ceux qui partagent des fichiers, pourraient sauver l'industrie du piratage sur Internet.
En avril, pour sa première semaine d'activité, iTunes a vendu plus d'un million de téléchargements. Fin octobre, il en avait vendu dans les 14 millions. Alors qu'Apple rend le service disponible pour les utilisateurs de PC – auparavant, seul un système Mac était compatible – les ventes devraient progresser encore plus. Napster 2.0 a une bibliothèque de 500 000 chansons disponibles, 100 000 de plus qu'iTunes. Sa forte image de marque en fait un formidable apport au marché.
Mais le fait que davantage de personnes qu'on aurait pu le croire sont désireuses d'acheter de la musique en ligne ne signifie pas que les problèmes du secteur aient totalement disparu. Lors des cinq prochaines années, selon Informa Media Group, un éditeur d'informations sur les médias, les ventes numériques de téléchargements à la carte et les services d'abonnements vont être multipliés par 20. Mais ils ne représenteront que 1,8 milliard de dollars, soit moins de 6% du marché mondial de la musique. Le partage de fichiers de particulier à particulier privera l'industrie de 4,7 milliards de dollars de revenus en 2008.
Pour les adolescents et les étudiants sans ressources, le fait que le partage de particulier à particulier soit gratuit sera toujours attirant. Payer 99 centimes pour une chanson sur iTunes, déclare une ado britannique, n'est pas attirant car à ce prix-là, elle peut tout aussi bien acheter le CD dans un magasin. Les nouveaux services ne parviennent pas non plus à se rapprocher de l'offre de presque toute la musique jamais enregistrée et dont les logiciels de particulier à particulier se targuent.
Ces derniers mois, en ce qui concerne le risque d'être traîné devant les tribunaux par l'Association de l'Industrie du Disque Américaine, les nouvelles versions de réseaux de particulier à particulier présentent l'avantage de garantir l'anonymat des utilisateurs. La plus populaire en ce moment est Earth Station 5, basée, ce qui est peu banal, dans le camp de réfugiés de Jenin en Cisjordanie. Après que l'AIDA a déclaré qu'elle entamerait des actions en justice, son logiciel a été téléchargé plus de 16 millions de fois en 90 heures. À cette heure, il semble encore fonctionner.
Pour se donner un aperçu du futur, les grandes maisons de disque ne devraient pas regarder les chiffres encourageants d'iTunes, mais les baisses de prix pratiquées en septembre par le groupe Universal Music, la plus grande des maisons de disque, qui a réduit les prix des CDs pour les consommateurs de près d'un quart. Une des raisons de l'effondrement des ventes de musique est que les consommateurs croient que les CDs coûtent trop cher. À présent, d'autres firmes vont avoir à baisser leur prix afin de rivaliser avec Universal. Les magasins de vente au rabais comme Wal-Mart, Circuit City et Best Buy les baisseront encore davantage.
Le succès d'iTunes a clairement révélé à l'industrie de la musique une désagréable vérité : beaucoup de personnes ne veulent acheter qu'un seul morceau, et pas des albums. Les données d'Apple montrent que ses consommateurs achetaient 12 singles pour un album sur iTunes. Ce qui est à mettre en rapport avec les 0,02 singles vendus par album dans les magasins américains, selon une étude menée par Sanford Bernstein. Les meilleurs artistes peuvent inciter les gens à acheter un album entier. Mais l'industrie du disque ne peut plus se baser sur le prix d'un album comme récompense pour soutenir un groupe.
Au bout du compte, comme le dit Moby, un musicien influent, l'industrie du disque devra se débarrasser de sa façon actuelle de faire des affaires. Il ne lui sera plus possible de réaliser d'énormes marges sur les CDs qui ne coûtent presque rien à fabriquer. Pour compenser la baisse des prix, dit-il,, l'industrie du disque doit réduire ses dépenses marketing pour les artistes d'au moins les 4 cinquièmes. Une fois que les maisons de musique auront moins de pouvoir marketing, et avec la distribution sur Internet, dit Moby, les artistes seront en position de force. « Pourquoi », demande-t-il, « une maison de disque est-elle plus qualifiée que moi pour envoyer un fichier MP3 à iTunes ? »
Une des raisons pour lesquelles les gens ont accordé une importance moindre à la musique ces dernières années tient dans le fait que les maisons de disque ont consacré tellement de leur énergie à créer des évènements au succès énorme mais seulement sur le très court terme. Cela pourrait changer à l'avenir à mesure que l'industrie change sa façon de faire des affaires. Si les entreprises ne peuvent pas gagner de l'argent en vendant en ligne, une option sera d'essayer d'obtenir une part des autres revenus des groupes. Ils auront alors une forte motivation pour produire de la qualité sur le long terme.
Korda Marshall, directeur général d'East West Records, une division du groupe Warner Music, a révélé « The Darkness », un nouveau groupe britannique qui fera prochainement une tournée en Amérique. Il voulait éviter la tendance actuelle de la surpromotion. A un moment donné, dit-il, la machine marketing a voulu s'en emparer, mais cela aurait pu écourter l'avenir du groupe. Sanctuary, une entreprise britannique, tire la moitié de ses revenus des concerts, du management des artistes, du merchandising et des ventes de DVDs musicaux, et l'autre moitié des ventes de CDs et des droits d'auteurs. Avec des artistes comme Neil Young, les Cranberries et les Pet Shop Boys, qui ont des bases de fans fidèles, elle a augmenté ses revenus de 26% en 2002, alors que les ventes de musique ont globalement chuté de l'ordre de 7%.
Pour le consommateur, acheter de la musique signifiera probablement des prix plus bas, plus de choix et, peut-être, une qualité meilleure. Mais pour l'industrie de la musique telle qu'elle existe aujourd'hui, en dépit de l'optimisme suscité par iTunes et le nouveau Napster, le futur demeure incertain et, comparé au passé, morne.